The Strategic Implications of China's Energy Needs by unknow

Author:unknow
Language: eng
Format: epub
Tags: History, Military, General, Strategy, Political Science, International Relations, Arms Control, Political Freedom
ISBN: 9781136050886
Google: d3dcBAAAQBAJ
Publisher: Routledge
Published: 2014-08-27T01:24:12+00:00

Conclusion

This chapter has sought to identify the key actors in China's energy security policy and to analyse a number of the most significant commitments that have been made towards major oil and gas projects. In the case studies examined, the Middle East was distinctive as being the region which poses both great opportunities and great vulnerabilities. On the one hand, it is potentially the solution to China's energy needs since it is the region with the most abundant and cheapest sources of supply but, on the other, it poses the greatest energy security problems since the threats to these supplies are perceived among Chinese decision makers to be greatest. In the Middle East, economic logic and necessity drives political decision making. The economic and political factors are more finely balanced as regards the oil and gas resources in Xinjiang, Central Asia and Russia since the economic costs are higher and the political risk factors are perceived to be less, if still significant.

The two major commitments made so far - the west-to-east gas pipeline and the Angarsk-Daqing oil pipeline - are the outcomes of many years of complex negotiations both between the key domestic interest groups and with the relevant foreign countries. The degree of caution manifest in the lengthy policymaking process reflected the need to gain a consensus among the key domestic actors. It also illustrates the willingness of the Chinese government, in the policy implementation stage, critically to assess policy commitments which were originally driven by political and strategic considerations so as to ensure that they conform to basic conditions of economic viability and are responsive to shifts in China's strategic and foreign policy objectives. Thus, the decision to forge ahead with the west-to-east pipeline was driven by the determination of the top leadership, supported by the military, provincial governments and other governmental agencies, to promote economic development and to ensure social and political stability in the region, and by the state oil companies' commercial interests. The decision to prioritise a Russian project over one from Central Asia, despite the strong commitments made in particular to Kazakhstan, illustrates the shift in Chinese foreign policy towards the need to cement relations with Russia along with a reassessment of the economic and political risks of energy linkages with Central Asia.

In general, Chinese policy making, particularly in the policy implementation stage, is characterised by caution and careful assessments of the relative costs and benefits, particularly where third countries are concerned. Nevertheless, the decisions taken conform to an energy security policy which is dominated by strategic measures and where the government is willing to assume considerable potential costs to achieve its energy security objectives. The key actors in the policy-making process have a predominantly 'strategic' orientation and there is a notable absence of a significant input from interest groups who might promote supplyside and more market-driven solutions to ensuring energy security. As is argued throughout this Paper, this absence might be considered to be the greatest potential threat to China's energy security. Moreover,

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